Our western frame of mind only lets us recognize our own logics of resistance (in this case belic oriented). In our narcissism, eurocentric fashion we think our way to fight is the only one. They should see the Bruce Lee monologue on water..
You’re right to highlight the differences between China and the US. China is a powerful country at the forefront of an emergent, multipolar world. The US is an empire of a dying, unipolar order. They play different games. The failing imperial aggression of the US and its proxy Israel is a sign of the old order passing and a new, different one coming to be.
What this all seems to coalesce into is; China is using their intellect rather than their emotions. They’re the ones being the most strategic here. Out of everyone. If we were playing Risk….China gonna win y’all. But we wouldn’t see it until it was too late. 🤷♀️ Soooo go China? Hope you won’t be as war-mongery as the last empire.
I for one do not want to see China influenced by Donald Trump and the American Republicans! China should never sully its reputation by being involved with whimsical American policies. Too many of us in western nations as well as European nations, China has come a long way in governance of its people which is unique due to its size and it’s history. I envision a new world order emerging with China as a leading nation. Association with the United States of America right now would undo decades of economic and political growth in China.
China’s policy is not to intervene militarily outside its borders and not to sell weapons to nations at war. It wants peace in West Asia so it can trade and invest, and the region can develop economically. Iran is the most sovereign nation in the region, a critical part of China’s Belt and Road, and a bulwark against U.S. hegemonism, and China supports it. China proposes negotiations with guarantees for Iran’s sovereignty, though it knows as well as Iran does that there are no guarantees save military victory. If Iran faces an existential threat—such as a threatened nuclear attack by U.S./Israel—China will undoubtedly step up its diplomatic efforts to support Iran and isolate the imperialists. China has a long-term view, that there are times when U.S. hegemonism wins, as with Venezuela, but it is on the decline and will fall primarily from internal contradictions.
What you just said is actually very correct. This is also how I understand what is happening in Chinese media and in the Chinese political view of this conflict right now. As long as there is no regime change in Iran, China will stay on the side and try to use diplomacy to calm the conflict down. But if there is real regime change, they have not said what they are going to do, but I think the bottom line is, like you said, they will probably try not to let that happen.
Well, on my Chinese news feed, the Chinese foreign minister is talking to Russia, Pakistan, and the UAE to mitigate the situation and trying to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible. at least, that’s the first step.
China is not wisely sitting things out while watching two tigers fight. More like China is one of a few armed men in a village beset by a lame old tiger turned man eater - watching out his window as the tiger mauls one of the village’s dogs. He can just watch, the dog is not his, he is himself in no immediate danger, as the tiger would not dare to attempt to invade his house. But the tiger isn’t going to just go away. While lame it may yet live for years. It is in pain and insatiably hungry. Its senses are yet keen. It watches the village and waits for opportunities to strike and kill when individuals are vulnerable. After Russia, Venezuela, Cuba, Iran etc. are dealt with the tiger will be stalking China.
I greatly admire China's geostrategic game and commitment to its principles. But there is a potential of that commitment being a moot point if the barbarians carry out their stated war crimes against Iran tomorrow and Iran carries out its stated retaliation, because I don't see how any economy in the world will survive that scenario. There is a cost even to being principled.
Our western frame of mind only lets us recognize our own logics of resistance (in this case belic oriented). In our narcissism, eurocentric fashion we think our way to fight is the only one. They should see the Bruce Lee monologue on water..
You’re right to highlight the differences between China and the US. China is a powerful country at the forefront of an emergent, multipolar world. The US is an empire of a dying, unipolar order. They play different games. The failing imperial aggression of the US and its proxy Israel is a sign of the old order passing and a new, different one coming to be.
What this all seems to coalesce into is; China is using their intellect rather than their emotions. They’re the ones being the most strategic here. Out of everyone. If we were playing Risk….China gonna win y’all. But we wouldn’t see it until it was too late. 🤷♀️ Soooo go China? Hope you won’t be as war-mongery as the last empire.
Always intelligent insight and commentary. If only more people could see what you speak.
thank you.
I for one do not want to see China influenced by Donald Trump and the American Republicans! China should never sully its reputation by being involved with whimsical American policies. Too many of us in western nations as well as European nations, China has come a long way in governance of its people which is unique due to its size and it’s history. I envision a new world order emerging with China as a leading nation. Association with the United States of America right now would undo decades of economic and political growth in China.
China doesn’t need to directly intervene militarily. It’s doing so in other ways to help Iran’s cause.
It's like an old saying: Don't start a fight, if someone hits you, then you can hit back.
China’s policy is not to intervene militarily outside its borders and not to sell weapons to nations at war. It wants peace in West Asia so it can trade and invest, and the region can develop economically. Iran is the most sovereign nation in the region, a critical part of China’s Belt and Road, and a bulwark against U.S. hegemonism, and China supports it. China proposes negotiations with guarantees for Iran’s sovereignty, though it knows as well as Iran does that there are no guarantees save military victory. If Iran faces an existential threat—such as a threatened nuclear attack by U.S./Israel—China will undoubtedly step up its diplomatic efforts to support Iran and isolate the imperialists. China has a long-term view, that there are times when U.S. hegemonism wins, as with Venezuela, but it is on the decline and will fall primarily from internal contradictions.
What you just said is actually very correct. This is also how I understand what is happening in Chinese media and in the Chinese political view of this conflict right now. As long as there is no regime change in Iran, China will stay on the side and try to use diplomacy to calm the conflict down. But if there is real regime change, they have not said what they are going to do, but I think the bottom line is, like you said, they will probably try not to let that happen.
Great article, Neil.
thank you Anna
It sounds like China is doing harm reduction right now and preparing if that zealot Hegseth decides to point the war cannons at them.
Well, on my Chinese news feed, the Chinese foreign minister is talking to Russia, Pakistan, and the UAE to mitigate the situation and trying to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible. at least, that’s the first step.
Harm reduction. Well put.
China is not wisely sitting things out while watching two tigers fight. More like China is one of a few armed men in a village beset by a lame old tiger turned man eater - watching out his window as the tiger mauls one of the village’s dogs. He can just watch, the dog is not his, he is himself in no immediate danger, as the tiger would not dare to attempt to invade his house. But the tiger isn’t going to just go away. While lame it may yet live for years. It is in pain and insatiably hungry. Its senses are yet keen. It watches the village and waits for opportunities to strike and kill when individuals are vulnerable. After Russia, Venezuela, Cuba, Iran etc. are dealt with the tiger will be stalking China.
I greatly admire China's geostrategic game and commitment to its principles. But there is a potential of that commitment being a moot point if the barbarians carry out their stated war crimes against Iran tomorrow and Iran carries out its stated retaliation, because I don't see how any economy in the world will survive that scenario. There is a cost even to being principled.
🎯
China learnt a lot from its long history. Besides its development and priorities are well planned and those plans are followed. Nothing is chaotic.
We are not that stupid. In fact, the market is starting to price China as a geopolitical hedge. https://igreaterchina.substack.com/p/the-market-is-starting-to-price-china?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web