I hate to root against my country bur I hope that some so-called leaders will recognize their aggregious strategic errors and begin to fix it It is staggering how billergerant we are and appear not to see that China just needs to close its ports and the US is in serious trouble. Sadly Trump's is far to stupid and arrogant to wrestle with this issue. Love your work Neil.
I really hope some Western leaders can learn to be humble, to think from other people’s perspectives, and to truly learn from them, using that understanding to improve their own people’s lives.
China is our major trading partner. I think it is foolish of the Australian government to do deals with the US that might negatively impact on that for one thing, (and this isn't the first example of this). But beyond that, we really are part of Asia, we should be reviewing our alliances anyway, especially as the US has proven itself unreliable in a number of ways, relies on belligerence rather than diplomacy and respectful trading partnerships, and is losing influencd in the world (not least because of issues that arise from its own short sightedness).
Exactly. Interesting you mention Rudd. He was the last PM we had who seemed to believe in an independent and sovereign Australia to any extent. There have been a few others, but I think that a sizable majority of Australians don't seem to have an issue with is effectively being the 51st state.
I think a lot of citizens do care about our relationship with the USA and are no doubt confused by events emanating from USA over the last decade . There is a lot of ocean between us and the US and I doubt their sincerity in coming to our aid in a conflict. We have to accept that we are an Indo-Pacific nation firmly bound to Asia and should start to make mature decisions about our future alliances in trade and geopolitics based on where we are not based on historical ties that really mean zero on future geopolitical considerations. We need to wake up but that means more transparency from Government and less hype and disinformation from the media…we have been far too complacent and naive on the world stage.
Instead of ‘fearing’ China why not admit their superiority and work together for the good of all. I’ve heard China China China my whole life. They have been around the block many times over. And it shows. Let’s learn something from China. Start with health care and education.
Thankyou Neil for this excellent summary. Sadly, it seems the erosion of US military capabilities due to these structural issues makes the likelihood of global conflict even more inevitable. Of course, this is nothing new.
"If the development of the United States should be halted, the powerful forces at work within it will seek a way out through war." Antonio Gramsci, Secretary of the Communist Party of Italy, 14 August 1924 - 8 November 1926 [predicted the rise of fascism under Mussolini, and Hitler].
Gramsci was quite right that the US empire will seek a way out through war, but for a variety of reasons, including those outlined by Neil, the US will fail, and that will hasten its demise. The US military-industrial complex is a financialised, corrupted tool of the oligarchs that is not concerned with producing effective systems but with extracting enormous profits from the money laundering scheme known as “the US government and its vassals”. The US military-industrial complex relies on key components and materials imported from China. That supply is now unavailable. Checkmate.
We all see this become reality sooner or later, one way or another. It will take another 5 years for Chinese engineers to solve chip issues. At that time, there will not be much leverage from the White House. The administration should really focus on its people more.
It's hard to imagine that the kind of reindustrialization you describe will ever happen in the US. It would take visionary political will and leadership, along with massive government financial investment. It took a World War to build up those systems in the 40s and 50s. What will it take now? Thank you for another great article.
It would require an entire overhaul of the US economic & political system - the only way. We must abandon crony casino capitalism and move toward the light that the CIA & MI6 have spent decades trying to snuff out . . . A socialist/communist society.
The first thing that the US needs is a cultural revolution that puts scientific and engineering excellence as central to the whole of society. It needs the best students choosing STEM subjects, not law. There should be no future for business leaders with no technical expertise. Dropping the cult of the boy wonder who dropped out of college to found and empire would help.
If ever the US does manage that shift then there there is the pint at which to start worrying about rare earth supplies. Your native-born scientists could perhaps devise better methods for extracting these elements, although I suspect that China is already funding research for this.
There is plenty of demand for rare earths it appears, so Australia was happy to do the new deal with the US that you mention, to develop more rare earth extraction in Australia. But Australia’s mineral exports to China remain unaffected. And, included in that is a very large tonnage of [alumina] which feeds the Chinese aluminum making industry. Australia has had a security relationship with the US since the end of WW2. But it also has a key trading relationship with China. It has to make both of these work.
Well if that is the case then it means an awful lot of raw material needs to be processed to extract the rare metals. I saw a statistic that said that 1 kg of gallium can be produced from every 120,000 kg of ore. But in any case, I learned that Australia ships mostly alumina to China rather than unrefined ore. Alumina is refined powder that is mostly missing the rare earths which are left behind in the “red mud”. The point is still valid that whatever Australia currently exports to China will continue unaffected.
If I have understood correctly it is the aluminium that is the side product. That's why China has been accused of dumping cheap aluminium on world markets. They have too much production due to demand for REMs and magnets.
I thought this was a very clear discussion of the rare earth production. However I read some academic sources about production of light rare earth elements. Several sources said that lree are somewhat common in the earths crust and the ore can be refined, similarly to other elements. Can you clarify this for me. This is not a troll posting, genuinely interested.
So socialism (or state capitalism, ie. regulated business in a planned envelope, under the flag of nodding to Mao communism with early Ming characteristics) wins every time over standard deregulated capitalist selfish business mayhem. Mamdani rule KO?
OK- but in western Australia refineries produce approximately 8 million tonnes, and thats about half of Australia's production. I would expect its also likely that the state government would quarantine additional gas (we are also a major gas exporter) to ramp up production. There has been talk of the Wagerup refinery being boosted due to the deal with the US. Even if it doesn't match Chinese output, but its still significant - and i hate that our spineless prime minister is prepared to make a deal like that. On the bright side, the processing of a lot of rare earth minerals relies on Chinese technology - and hopefully that will present a significant roadblock. I would love to know your thoughts on that, Neil.
I hate to root against my country bur I hope that some so-called leaders will recognize their aggregious strategic errors and begin to fix it It is staggering how billergerant we are and appear not to see that China just needs to close its ports and the US is in serious trouble. Sadly Trump's is far to stupid and arrogant to wrestle with this issue. Love your work Neil.
I really hope some Western leaders can learn to be humble, to think from other people’s perspectives, and to truly learn from them, using that understanding to improve their own people’s lives.
China is our major trading partner. I think it is foolish of the Australian government to do deals with the US that might negatively impact on that for one thing, (and this isn't the first example of this). But beyond that, we really are part of Asia, we should be reviewing our alliances anyway, especially as the US has proven itself unreliable in a number of ways, relies on belligerence rather than diplomacy and respectful trading partnerships, and is losing influencd in the world (not least because of issues that arise from its own short sightedness).
I’ve tried to start this conversation various times over the years, in various forums, with little to no engagement.
( yeah, I voted for Kev.)
I think it ultimately boils down to an issue of sovereignty, of which Oz has none. We are the very definition of a client state.
Exactly. Interesting you mention Rudd. He was the last PM we had who seemed to believe in an independent and sovereign Australia to any extent. There have been a few others, but I think that a sizable majority of Australians don't seem to have an issue with is effectively being the 51st state.
I think a lot of citizens do care about our relationship with the USA and are no doubt confused by events emanating from USA over the last decade . There is a lot of ocean between us and the US and I doubt their sincerity in coming to our aid in a conflict. We have to accept that we are an Indo-Pacific nation firmly bound to Asia and should start to make mature decisions about our future alliances in trade and geopolitics based on where we are not based on historical ties that really mean zero on future geopolitical considerations. We need to wake up but that means more transparency from Government and less hype and disinformation from the media…we have been far too complacent and naive on the world stage.
Instead of ‘fearing’ China why not admit their superiority and work together for the good of all. I’ve heard China China China my whole life. They have been around the block many times over. And it shows. Let’s learn something from China. Start with health care and education.
Yup, we can definitely work together make our people all happy!!!!
Thankyou Neil for this excellent summary. Sadly, it seems the erosion of US military capabilities due to these structural issues makes the likelihood of global conflict even more inevitable. Of course, this is nothing new.
"If the development of the United States should be halted, the powerful forces at work within it will seek a way out through war." Antonio Gramsci, Secretary of the Communist Party of Italy, 14 August 1924 - 8 November 1926 [predicted the rise of fascism under Mussolini, and Hitler].
Gramsci was quite right that the US empire will seek a way out through war, but for a variety of reasons, including those outlined by Neil, the US will fail, and that will hasten its demise. The US military-industrial complex is a financialised, corrupted tool of the oligarchs that is not concerned with producing effective systems but with extracting enormous profits from the money laundering scheme known as “the US government and its vassals”. The US military-industrial complex relies on key components and materials imported from China. That supply is now unavailable. Checkmate.
We all see this become reality sooner or later, one way or another. It will take another 5 years for Chinese engineers to solve chip issues. At that time, there will not be much leverage from the White House. The administration should really focus on its people more.
true, very interesting, thanks for bringing this up
It's hard to imagine that the kind of reindustrialization you describe will ever happen in the US. It would take visionary political will and leadership, along with massive government financial investment. It took a World War to build up those systems in the 40s and 50s. What will it take now? Thank you for another great article.
Thank you, Celia, thank you for reading this. true it will require someone who truly is a visionary, and has the whole country back up him/her.
It would require an entire overhaul of the US economic & political system - the only way. We must abandon crony casino capitalism and move toward the light that the CIA & MI6 have spent decades trying to snuff out . . . A socialist/communist society.
Excellent article , thank you for the information, pls
Keep it coming
Thank you Raul!
The first thing that the US needs is a cultural revolution that puts scientific and engineering excellence as central to the whole of society. It needs the best students choosing STEM subjects, not law. There should be no future for business leaders with no technical expertise. Dropping the cult of the boy wonder who dropped out of college to found and empire would help.
If ever the US does manage that shift then there there is the pint at which to start worrying about rare earth supplies. Your native-born scientists could perhaps devise better methods for extracting these elements, although I suspect that China is already funding research for this.
Absolutely!
Subscribed.
thank you!
There is plenty of demand for rare earths it appears, so Australia was happy to do the new deal with the US that you mention, to develop more rare earth extraction in Australia. But Australia’s mineral exports to China remain unaffected. And, included in that is a very large tonnage of [alumina] which feeds the Chinese aluminum making industry. Australia has had a security relationship with the US since the end of WW2. But it also has a key trading relationship with China. It has to make both of these work.
Well if that is the case then it means an awful lot of raw material needs to be processed to extract the rare metals. I saw a statistic that said that 1 kg of gallium can be produced from every 120,000 kg of ore. But in any case, I learned that Australia ships mostly alumina to China rather than unrefined ore. Alumina is refined powder that is mostly missing the rare earths which are left behind in the “red mud”. The point is still valid that whatever Australia currently exports to China will continue unaffected.
If I have understood correctly it is the aluminium that is the side product. That's why China has been accused of dumping cheap aluminium on world markets. They have too much production due to demand for REMs and magnets.
thanks bring this up, I think I read this somewhere.
Thank you so much for this excellent article.i have learned a lot🙏
Yet another reason why the US wants Canada’s cheap electricity.
Denying REE to the US MIC is not a good thing, it is a great thing. Let them dream while they demilitarize.
I thought this was a very clear discussion of the rare earth production. However I read some academic sources about production of light rare earth elements. Several sources said that lree are somewhat common in the earths crust and the ore can be refined, similarly to other elements. Can you clarify this for me. This is not a troll posting, genuinely interested.
No need to pollute our lakes and streams. We just pay Pakistan, India, Australia, etc to do it.
So socialism (or state capitalism, ie. regulated business in a planned envelope, under the flag of nodding to Mao communism with early Ming characteristics) wins every time over standard deregulated capitalist selfish business mayhem. Mamdani rule KO?
OK- but in western Australia refineries produce approximately 8 million tonnes, and thats about half of Australia's production. I would expect its also likely that the state government would quarantine additional gas (we are also a major gas exporter) to ramp up production. There has been talk of the Wagerup refinery being boosted due to the deal with the US. Even if it doesn't match Chinese output, but its still significant - and i hate that our spineless prime minister is prepared to make a deal like that. On the bright side, the processing of a lot of rare earth minerals relies on Chinese technology - and hopefully that will present a significant roadblock. I would love to know your thoughts on that, Neil.