More eligible voters didn't bother to vote than voted for Emperor Lai & the 2 pro-dialogue opposition parties combined got more vote than the wolf in sheep's cloak. Young people are no longer enamoured with the DPP, hence the fake corruption charge that has the popular Ko Wen-Je sentenced to 17 years - the real reason being more young people are turning from DPP to Ko's party. Letting DPP control the narrative is like letting AIPAC control the narrative. There is no real "democracy" in Taiwan.
One aspect that you didn't touch on is how US allies in general are losing faith in US guarantees, from Europe to Gulf States, and in East Asia there is significant discontent with US military presence in South Korea and Japan.
How do you see this dimension of lack of trust in US narrative
From Obama onward, the domestic political situation and economic conditions in the United States have not been ideal, which has made it inevitable that it cannot fully deliver on some of its commitments to its allies overseas.
As for U.S. allies, when it comes to the Taiwan issue, the most troublesome one is Japan. Japan is still basically a dog of the United States. So maybe it barks very loudly, and maybe when something actually happens, it wouldn’t dare to move, but it definitely barks very loudly. So in that sense, there hasn’t been much change, at least from what I can see.
As for the other U.S. allies on the Taiwan issue, personally, I think they can basically be ignored, except for Japan.
I note that there have been many popular protests in Japan against the sabre-rattling pronouncements of PM Takaichi. I haven’t seen polling on this issue from Japan, but I sense a fall in support for the US ‘alliance’ there?
Don't you think that this was just a USA forced meeting to give the appearance things are smooth for China? The future will still be a violent exit of American forces from the region. 500 American military personnel currently stationed there, with artillery. Taiwan is currently occupied.
thanks for this great break down. I don't have a lot of formal education and i was certainly never taught any of this in history at school. it is great to have this insight thank you
Our (USA's) current weakness may provide rational Chinese political actors with an opportunity to re-engage across the "strait" without a lot of bloodshed. That, in itself, is encouraging, but the PRC has way too much power. Look how, in our case, power can devolve.
The Gen Zs, especially when it comes to Taiwan, feels very differently compared to those from the 1980s, 70s, 60s, or even 50s. People from our generation still have that sense of brotherhood and shared identity with Taiwan. But the younger generation, the ones who grew up on the internet, have very, very little of that feeling left. If this separation continues, it probably won’t lead to a good outcome.
It's not just the internet. It's DPP's rewriting of history & control of the education system & media since they gained power that shaped the young people. But that can change again. There is nothing "natural" about Taiwanese being a separate non-Chinese identity. It's all just brainwashing. No child in Taiwan is born thinking they're Taiwanese not Chinese.
Taiwan is sensitively dependent on energy from the Persian Gulf. My understanding is that they have low energy reserves, which they are probably eating away at now. If Taiwan goes down because of the energy crisis, then so does a lot of the tech sector, and that will impact all nations, especially China. The Chinese I think recognized this swiftly and reached out to Taiwan very early in the war with Iran. It would be difficult to imagine China didn't bring up repatriation in those initial messages. It is not in Taiwan's interest to remain at loggerheads with China. I think Taiwanese actions boil down more to the historic moment the energy sector is in than to any kind of strategic political positioning or sudden change in political imagination on Taiwan's part.
Is Taiwan dependent on gulf oil or gas? I thought China might be able to lessen tension and bring the two countries together through energy aid and economic cooperation. A slow ling game. Amy thoughts on this?
I think the issue for discussion is the terms of unification with the mainland. Both in terms of the path, as well as the destination. Just my view.
More eligible voters didn't bother to vote than voted for Emperor Lai & the 2 pro-dialogue opposition parties combined got more vote than the wolf in sheep's cloak. Young people are no longer enamoured with the DPP, hence the fake corruption charge that has the popular Ko Wen-Je sentenced to 17 years - the real reason being more young people are turning from DPP to Ko's party. Letting DPP control the narrative is like letting AIPAC control the narrative. There is no real "democracy" in Taiwan.
This article has a good form to outline history for those of us trying to learn this. Tyfs ❤️👍
One aspect that you didn't touch on is how US allies in general are losing faith in US guarantees, from Europe to Gulf States, and in East Asia there is significant discontent with US military presence in South Korea and Japan.
How do you see this dimension of lack of trust in US narrative
From Obama onward, the domestic political situation and economic conditions in the United States have not been ideal, which has made it inevitable that it cannot fully deliver on some of its commitments to its allies overseas.
As for U.S. allies, when it comes to the Taiwan issue, the most troublesome one is Japan. Japan is still basically a dog of the United States. So maybe it barks very loudly, and maybe when something actually happens, it wouldn’t dare to move, but it definitely barks very loudly. So in that sense, there hasn’t been much change, at least from what I can see.
As for the other U.S. allies on the Taiwan issue, personally, I think they can basically be ignored, except for Japan.
I note that there have been many popular protests in Japan against the sabre-rattling pronouncements of PM Takaichi. I haven’t seen polling on this issue from Japan, but I sense a fall in support for the US ‘alliance’ there?
Don't you think that this was just a USA forced meeting to give the appearance things are smooth for China? The future will still be a violent exit of American forces from the region. 500 American military personnel currently stationed there, with artillery. Taiwan is currently occupied.
lets hope the Taiwanese people will make the right choice.
thanks for this great break down. I don't have a lot of formal education and i was certainly never taught any of this in history at school. it is great to have this insight thank you
Thank you so much for this, Neil. If the political tendency she represents is defeated, we will all feel the horror.
But none will know it like the Taiwanese people themselves.
Our (USA's) current weakness may provide rational Chinese political actors with an opportunity to re-engage across the "strait" without a lot of bloodshed. That, in itself, is encouraging, but the PRC has way too much power. Look how, in our case, power can devolve.
Be careful what you wish for.
The Gen Zs, especially when it comes to Taiwan, feels very differently compared to those from the 1980s, 70s, 60s, or even 50s. People from our generation still have that sense of brotherhood and shared identity with Taiwan. But the younger generation, the ones who grew up on the internet, have very, very little of that feeling left. If this separation continues, it probably won’t lead to a good outcome.
It's not just the internet. It's DPP's rewriting of history & control of the education system & media since they gained power that shaped the young people. But that can change again. There is nothing "natural" about Taiwanese being a separate non-Chinese identity. It's all just brainwashing. No child in Taiwan is born thinking they're Taiwanese not Chinese.
A cautionary tale about obscenely well funded propaganda, absorbed willingly by those who will pay for it.
Taiwan is sensitively dependent on energy from the Persian Gulf. My understanding is that they have low energy reserves, which they are probably eating away at now. If Taiwan goes down because of the energy crisis, then so does a lot of the tech sector, and that will impact all nations, especially China. The Chinese I think recognized this swiftly and reached out to Taiwan very early in the war with Iran. It would be difficult to imagine China didn't bring up repatriation in those initial messages. It is not in Taiwan's interest to remain at loggerheads with China. I think Taiwanese actions boil down more to the historic moment the energy sector is in than to any kind of strategic political positioning or sudden change in political imagination on Taiwan's part.
Is Taiwan dependent on gulf oil or gas? I thought China might be able to lessen tension and bring the two countries together through energy aid and economic cooperation. A slow ling game. Amy thoughts on this?
Yes, In the beginning of the war, China offered the help, but the DPP are shit heads.
Almost a relief. I was beginning to think that the US had completely cornered that market. 😂😂😂