The White House says talks are still moving, but its demands look closer to imposed defeat, and the fighting in Lebanon shows this war is not yet shrinking.
Iran is winning the war--steadily degrading U.S. military bases in the region and Israel's military and industrial infrastructure, and creating an energy/global recession crisis. Its goal is to have long-term peace in the region, which means U.S./Israel lack the capacity to launch a future attack with any hope of winning. Israel's goal is to destroy Iran as a military and political force. Trump wants to avoid a deep recession and high inflation while at least appearing to win the war. Iran will not negotiate until Trump is ready to close all U.S. bases in the region and Israel is so weakened it gives up on expansion, possibly until it accepts a Palestinian state. The only thing that can interrupt this progression is U.S./Israeli use of nuclear weapons.
Israel so far refrains from striking Iran's power grid, nuclear reactor, and dams on reservoirs, because it fears Iran's retaliation, disabling its electricity, desalination plants, and nuclear reactors--mutual assured destruction. The only thing Iran cannot retaliate from is total nuclear devastation. Israel and Trump have proven they have no moral red lines. When they start talking about nuclear attack, Russia, China, and the developing world must step up and unite to prevent it.
Closing US bases would create a security vacuum for the Gulf states. None could fill that void right now. I expect the Gulf states will start or hasten efforts to diversify their defenses instead of relying solely on the US empire. I don’t think it’s yet the end of the empire’s presence in the region but it is the beginning of the end.
The Gulf States are corrupt family sheikdom dictatorships--several appear in the Epstein files--who invest all their money in the West, little to none in developing a national economy. Their labor force and armies are heavily dependent on foreigners. They owe their allegiance to the U.S. ruling class, not to their people. Reportedly one of them is providing the staging ground for the U.S. ground assault, and Iran has warned whomever it is they will face massive, existential attack. Iran or Iraq may invade one or more of them, and they've learned the U.S. will not protect them.
The dependency of the Gulf monarchies on the empire is my point. Insisting they promptly disentangle themselves from it is asking them to commit suicide. Iran is smarter than that, more focused on the long game. The empire is in decline. It won’t collapse overnight. But this is, I think, a turning point, a dramatic but slow and definite pivot to a more multipolar world order.
So disgusting the sanctimonious EU cannot take a consistent position on aggression by Russia and Israel. At least Russia had a genuine grievance (ethnic Russians were promised autonomy under Minsk accord) vs plain expansionism by Israel. And Israel is gratuitously violent towards civilians whereas Russians take care to minimise civilian casualties. The hypocrisy is deafening.
Iran is winning the war--steadily degrading U.S. military bases in the region and Israel's military and industrial infrastructure, and creating an energy/global recession crisis. Its goal is to have long-term peace in the region, which means U.S./Israel lack the capacity to launch a future attack with any hope of winning. Israel's goal is to destroy Iran as a military and political force. Trump wants to avoid a deep recession and high inflation while at least appearing to win the war. Iran will not negotiate until Trump is ready to close all U.S. bases in the region and Israel is so weakened it gives up on expansion, possibly until it accepts a Palestinian state. The only thing that can interrupt this progression is U.S./Israeli use of nuclear weapons.
hopefully they are not that desperate.
Israel so far refrains from striking Iran's power grid, nuclear reactor, and dams on reservoirs, because it fears Iran's retaliation, disabling its electricity, desalination plants, and nuclear reactors--mutual assured destruction. The only thing Iran cannot retaliate from is total nuclear devastation. Israel and Trump have proven they have no moral red lines. When they start talking about nuclear attack, Russia, China, and the developing world must step up and unite to prevent it.
Closing US bases would create a security vacuum for the Gulf states. None could fill that void right now. I expect the Gulf states will start or hasten efforts to diversify their defenses instead of relying solely on the US empire. I don’t think it’s yet the end of the empire’s presence in the region but it is the beginning of the end.
The Gulf States are corrupt family sheikdom dictatorships--several appear in the Epstein files--who invest all their money in the West, little to none in developing a national economy. Their labor force and armies are heavily dependent on foreigners. They owe their allegiance to the U.S. ruling class, not to their people. Reportedly one of them is providing the staging ground for the U.S. ground assault, and Iran has warned whomever it is they will face massive, existential attack. Iran or Iraq may invade one or more of them, and they've learned the U.S. will not protect them.
The dependency of the Gulf monarchies on the empire is my point. Insisting they promptly disentangle themselves from it is asking them to commit suicide. Iran is smarter than that, more focused on the long game. The empire is in decline. It won’t collapse overnight. But this is, I think, a turning point, a dramatic but slow and definite pivot to a more multipolar world order.
So disgusting the sanctimonious EU cannot take a consistent position on aggression by Russia and Israel. At least Russia had a genuine grievance (ethnic Russians were promised autonomy under Minsk accord) vs plain expansionism by Israel. And Israel is gratuitously violent towards civilians whereas Russians take care to minimise civilian casualties. The hypocrisy is deafening.