The White House says talks are still moving, but its demands look closer to imposed defeat, and the fighting in Lebanon shows this war is not yet shrinking.
Iran is winning the war--steadily degrading U.S. military bases in the region and Israel's military and industrial infrastructure, and creating an energy/global recession crisis. Its goal is to have long-term peace in the region, which means U.S./Israel lack the capacity to launch a future attack with any hope of winning. Israel's goal is to destroy Iran as a military and political force. Trump wants to avoid a deep recession and high inflation while at least appearing to win the war. Iran will not negotiate until Trump is ready to close all U.S. bases in the region and Israel is so weakened it gives up on expansion, possibly until it accepts a Palestinian state. The only thing that can interrupt this progression is U.S./Israeli use of nuclear weapons.
Israel so far refrains from striking Iran's power grid, nuclear reactor, and dams on reservoirs, because it fears Iran's retaliation, disabling its electricity, desalination plants, and nuclear reactors--mutual assured destruction. The only thing Iran cannot retaliate from is total nuclear devastation. Israel and Trump have proven they have no moral red lines. When they start talking about nuclear attack, Russia, China, and the developing world must step up and unite to prevent it.
Closing US bases would create a security vacuum for the Gulf states. None could fill that void right now. I expect the Gulf states will start or hasten efforts to diversify their defenses instead of relying solely on the US empire. I don’t think it’s yet the end of the empire’s presence in the region but it is the beginning of the end.
The Gulf States are corrupt family sheikdom dictatorships--several appear in the Epstein files--who invest all their money in the West, little to none in developing a national economy. Their labor force and armies are heavily dependent on foreigners. They owe their allegiance to the U.S. ruling class, not to their people. Reportedly one of them is providing the staging ground for the U.S. ground assault, and Iran has warned whomever it is they will face massive, existential attack. Iran or Iraq may invade one or more of them, and they've learned the U.S. will not protect them.
The dependency of the Gulf monarchies on the empire is my point. Insisting they promptly disentangle themselves from it is asking them to commit suicide. Iran is smarter than that, more focused on the long game. The empire is in decline. It won’t collapse overnight. But this is, I think, a turning point, a dramatic but slow and definite pivot to a more multipolar world order.
So disgusting the sanctimonious EU cannot take a consistent position on aggression by Russia and Israel. At least Russia had a genuine grievance (ethnic Russians were promised autonomy under Minsk accord) vs plain expansionism by Israel. And Israel is gratuitously violent towards civilians whereas Russians take care to minimise civilian casualties. The hypocrisy is deafening.
Maybe I missed it, but where did Iran say they were "reviewing" the preposterous American proposal? Everything I have heard and read has said exactly the reverse, that they will not even entertain reviewing it. The Iranian demands are logical and include what their spokespeople have described as a "political settlement" and specifically not as a "ceasefire" because a ceasefire with Israel is almost guaranteed to be broken. And since Israel controls the United States, a ceasefire is meaningless. Anyway why would Iran negotiate with these terrorists, especially while it has the upper hand? The Americans and the Israelis have not had to ever taste humiliating defeat before. But this is what is happening before the world's eyes. I think Trump is realizing he has made an epic mistake. That is why he is acting so erratic and sounding especially stupid, even by his standards. There is no way he is saving face from this. He is either going to admit that and move on or do something dangerously stupid to try to look like a winner. And the inevitable consequences will follow. That's what I see coming. Honestly, the only way I see out for him and his administration of bootlickers is to throw Israel under the bus. They're capable of it, because they're a cult and believe in no principles. But it's hard to imagine a US president throwing Israel to the dogs.
Iran is winning the war--steadily degrading U.S. military bases in the region and Israel's military and industrial infrastructure, and creating an energy/global recession crisis. Its goal is to have long-term peace in the region, which means U.S./Israel lack the capacity to launch a future attack with any hope of winning. Israel's goal is to destroy Iran as a military and political force. Trump wants to avoid a deep recession and high inflation while at least appearing to win the war. Iran will not negotiate until Trump is ready to close all U.S. bases in the region and Israel is so weakened it gives up on expansion, possibly until it accepts a Palestinian state. The only thing that can interrupt this progression is U.S./Israeli use of nuclear weapons.
hopefully they are not that desperate.
Israel so far refrains from striking Iran's power grid, nuclear reactor, and dams on reservoirs, because it fears Iran's retaliation, disabling its electricity, desalination plants, and nuclear reactors--mutual assured destruction. The only thing Iran cannot retaliate from is total nuclear devastation. Israel and Trump have proven they have no moral red lines. When they start talking about nuclear attack, Russia, China, and the developing world must step up and unite to prevent it.
Closing US bases would create a security vacuum for the Gulf states. None could fill that void right now. I expect the Gulf states will start or hasten efforts to diversify their defenses instead of relying solely on the US empire. I don’t think it’s yet the end of the empire’s presence in the region but it is the beginning of the end.
The Gulf States are corrupt family sheikdom dictatorships--several appear in the Epstein files--who invest all their money in the West, little to none in developing a national economy. Their labor force and armies are heavily dependent on foreigners. They owe their allegiance to the U.S. ruling class, not to their people. Reportedly one of them is providing the staging ground for the U.S. ground assault, and Iran has warned whomever it is they will face massive, existential attack. Iran or Iraq may invade one or more of them, and they've learned the U.S. will not protect them.
The dependency of the Gulf monarchies on the empire is my point. Insisting they promptly disentangle themselves from it is asking them to commit suicide. Iran is smarter than that, more focused on the long game. The empire is in decline. It won’t collapse overnight. But this is, I think, a turning point, a dramatic but slow and definite pivot to a more multipolar world order.
So disgusting the sanctimonious EU cannot take a consistent position on aggression by Russia and Israel. At least Russia had a genuine grievance (ethnic Russians were promised autonomy under Minsk accord) vs plain expansionism by Israel. And Israel is gratuitously violent towards civilians whereas Russians take care to minimise civilian casualties. The hypocrisy is deafening.
Maybe I missed it, but where did Iran say they were "reviewing" the preposterous American proposal? Everything I have heard and read has said exactly the reverse, that they will not even entertain reviewing it. The Iranian demands are logical and include what their spokespeople have described as a "political settlement" and specifically not as a "ceasefire" because a ceasefire with Israel is almost guaranteed to be broken. And since Israel controls the United States, a ceasefire is meaningless. Anyway why would Iran negotiate with these terrorists, especially while it has the upper hand? The Americans and the Israelis have not had to ever taste humiliating defeat before. But this is what is happening before the world's eyes. I think Trump is realizing he has made an epic mistake. That is why he is acting so erratic and sounding especially stupid, even by his standards. There is no way he is saving face from this. He is either going to admit that and move on or do something dangerously stupid to try to look like a winner. And the inevitable consequences will follow. That's what I see coming. Honestly, the only way I see out for him and his administration of bootlickers is to throw Israel under the bus. They're capable of it, because they're a cult and believe in no principles. But it's hard to imagine a US president throwing Israel to the dogs.